October CPI was an important milestone, but we aren't yet out the woods
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The future "output gap" drives inflation in modern macro. This is a problem.
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The inflation fan chart helps hide 'mortgage dominance' over the Bank of England
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A change of language does not represent a change of strategy.
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OPEC+ is the Big Winner
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Risk management (as opposed to just risk-taking) is what is being rewarded in 2022
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The Bank of England's fiscal indemnity is about to be triggered—big time!
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Nobody knows. But for the Eurozone it brings unique balance of payments challenges.
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Buba inflation control in the early-1980s hinged on the Taylor Principle—and the ECB knows this
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Standing firm in face of slowing activity was key to Volcker's success
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Comparisons with the 1970s are appropriate - the shock may even be larger!
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An energy shock is unlikely to elicit a dovish policy response; this cycle is very different from other cycles seen since the creation of the Euro.
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