No Deal Brexit Risk: Back to the Future

Deteriorating EU/UK relations could lead to a No Deal Brexit after all

  • The mood between Brussels and London with respect to the status of Northern Ireland continues to sour;

  • The government in Westminster will likely trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol in coming weeks;

  • This would then result in a series of retaliatory steps that could bring about a No Deal Brexit after all;

  • Ironically, more than five years after the Brexit vote, we still do not know with certainty what Brexit will entail.

Relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom due to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) have been slowly deteriorating since Brexit was enacted, and numerous sources (see here and here) suggest Prime Minister Johnson could soon invoke Art. 16 of NIP—potentially triggering a cascade of retaliatory policies that result in de facto “No Deal” Brexit despite the best efforts of negotiations over the past 5 years.

How could we get to such an outcome?

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A guest post by
Heading the analysis of Global Political and Policy Risks @ Exante Data; Macro-Strategist and Wayward Lawyer.
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