The rise in Japanese holdings of foreign bonds had an enormous impact on global markets between 2011 and 2020. Now, global markets will have to adapt to a reduction in Japanese demand.
Alex & Brad, this is a great piece - a ton of detailed analysis. Thanks very much for your hard work. While I am in no position to dispute your assessment (overall) of 'low probability of catastrophe', it is also clear that your report enumerates more than one source of 'low probabilities of catastrophe'. Moreover, there is quite a bit of opaque decision-making going on here.