The shocks keep coming

The stream of macro shocks hitting global financial markets continues in early 2023

This message was previously published at the end of Q1, to friends and colleagues of Exante Data on the company website: www.exantedata.com. We re-publish it here with minor edits.

It has been a crazy busy time. A continued stream of macro shocks has hit global financial markets since 2020, and the Exante Data team has been focused on serving our clients globally. As such, we have not kept in touch with our broader network as much as we would like. But we will try to do better in 2023, and provide regular updates on key developments in markets as well as within Exante Data; and we will provide these updates both on the Exante Data site, and via this Substack.

Key Macro Themes/Shocks in Q1

• The year started with a focus on China reopening. We have aggressively been using alternative data to stay ahead of the consensus on this important theme, which we have been tracking all the way back to November.

• In February, the focus shifted to surprising resilience of the US economy, and we continue to monitor a broad set of indicators for the US labor market, as well as use our network of specialist contacts, to have a timely read on the situation. Interestingly, and less discussed, this theme also has a European variant, as lower energy prices are generating a boost to both consumer confidence and confidence in the services sector (a non-consensus topic we have been zoomed in on).

• We have also been paying attention to the broader global theme of monetary policy differentiation. In Sweden, the new Riksbank Governor is playing into this. In Canada, different inflation dynamics are creating a unique setup, and in EM, we are observing differentiation along the dimension of debt leverage. This has been a powerful force driving asset returns.

• And then in March, another fresh shock hit. Escalating banking tensions have dominated, and we have aggressively covered the global impact since March 10. We have used data (including new daily proxies of deposit flight), thematic research and frequent client calls to stay on top of a fluid situation. Our experience is that in times of crisis Exante Data delivers the most value; and we will try to live up to this reputation in 2023, as we did in 2020. In this context, we also note that our new MarketReader™ technology has proved invaluable early signals about unusual movements in single names within the US financial sector (see video on this link). 

A Few Words on the Exante Data Team

It is the dedication and passion of the Exante Data team that allow us to deliver world-class service 24/7. Our European team has grown to four, and we have promoted Chris Marsh to Chief Economic Advisor, and Martin Rasmussen to Senior Strategist, both based in London. In New York, we have promoted Wouter Jongbloed to Chief Operating Officer, while still retaining his focus on global geopolitics. Meanwhile, we are looking to add another Python Economist (a job title Exante Data has pioneered) to the team, following the success of our initial hire with that title (reach out to jobs@exantedata.com).

We are proud to serve the world’s most sophisticated investors. We will continue to push ahead with a combination of proprietary data and human conceptual thinking. In our view, this is the superior formula for alpha generation and risk management.

Let us know if we can help with anything, or if you have any feedback (you can use info@exantedata.com or this form for this).

The content in this piece is partly based on proprietary analysis that Exante Data does for institutional clients as part of its full macro strategy and flow analytics services. The content offered here differs significantly from Exante Data’s full service and is less technical as it aims to provide a more medium-term policy relevant perspective. The opinions and analytics expressed in this piece are those of the author alone and may not be those of Exante Data Inc. or Exante Advisors LLC. The content of this piece and the opinions expressed herein are independent of any work Exante Data Inc. or Exante Advisors LLC does and communicates to its clients.

Exante Advisors, LLC & Exante Data, Inc. Disclaimer

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